IS LOCKDOWN A REMEDY FOR THE PANDEMIC?

Due to lockdown, many poor people got locked in their houses where they are forced to live without food. In a situation like this what we saw on social media that many groups of philanthropists reached out to poor people and fed them.

The government must think of other possible ways of lockdown. Photo: Adli Wahid-Unsplash

By LB THAPA

After the first wave of Coronavirus, now the pathogen is playing havoc in its second wave. In the meantime, the world has been warned of the third possible wave in the offing. Experts believe that the third wave could be even more devastative than the two earlier waves. The leading virologists of the world look quite apprehensive because the virus is smartly camouflaged and attacking its victims relentlessly, showing no mercy at all. 

Since its outbreak in China, Coronavirus has already taken the shape of a pandemic, killing numerous human lives and inflicting serious injuries on the global economy. During the early phase of the pandemic, many countries were at a loss as to what to do. Since doctors did not have any medicines that could work effectively against the virus, as a result, many countries resorted to lockdown. In a situation like this, lockdown is deemed to be the only remedy to the problem. 

As far as Nepal is concerned, the first wave of Coronavirus did completely destabilize the national economy. Now the second wave has given no respite either. It has rather created much more panic than the first wave. The second wave of Coronavirus did spread much faster than the first wave and killed more people than the first wave. Unfortunately, at a time when pandemic has wreaked havoc, the politicians are busy conspiring to stay in power. Taking no lesson from the first wave of the virus, now when the country is passing through a difficult phase of time, the government has declared lockdown to shirk away from its moral responsibilities. 

Due to lockdown, many poor people got locked in their houses where they are forced to live without food. In a situation like this what we saw on social media is that many groups of philanthropists reached out to poor people and fed them. Sorry, but we did not see any government officials managing two times meals for the hungry mouths. But yes what we saw was that the government gave orders to stop and beat the people who were feeding the poor and hungry people. If this is the way how a lockdown is to be imposed then it is possible that the ratio of death by hunger and by the pandemic might be equal. 

However, there are some people who think that the only lockdown is the effective way to contain the virus from spreading. According to them, those countries including China had duly followed complete lockdown to contain the virus from its rapid spreading. But, the truth has it that many countries registered a sharp increase in infection soon after the lockdown was lifted. India is an example where in spite of the lockdown the virus spread rapidly and killed more people now than before.       

In fact, it is found that lockdown has lowered the infection rate a bit, but it failed to contain the spread of the infection, as soon as the lockdown was lifted. The most severe effect of lockdown is seen on the world economy. The lockdown has brought the world economy to a screeching halt. Spanish GDP has plummeted by 18.5%. It is the highest drop in the history of the Spanish economy ever recorded. Despite all efforts, the German economy did also take a nosedive. Similarly, the UK economy has been hit hard as it was reduced by 20.4%. This is the highest drop in the British economy in the last 41 years. Even the mighty US economy could not escape from the heat of the pandemic. The immediate effect of the pandemic in the US economy was that about 17 million Americans lost their jobs. Moreover, the gross domestic product (GDP) plummeted by $2.15tn. The US had not experienced such a worst-case scenario since the 2008 financial collapse. Financial experts have estimated that the world economy is likely to shrink by 6% in 2021. 

Well, let’s talk about the Nepali economy. Over the last couple of years, the Nepali economy has not been able to farewell. First, the country was jolted by a severe earthquake in 2015, then came the Indian blockade, and now the pandemic. Moreover, Nepal’s growing trade deficit against India and China has been a matter of grave concern. Financial experts have suggested that the Nepali economy will come to the floor if lockdown is imposed for a prolonged period. According to a study conducted by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), about 96.7% of industries both small and big have experienced a reduction of 73.8% in overall production compared to the normal period. During the lockdown period, even electricity consumption had been reduced to 83.9%. These indicators are more than enough to understand the adverse effect of lockdown on the economy.   

In order to bring the national economy on the trek, it is necessary that lockdown should be eased gradually. And at the same time, the government must come up with some effective measures to counter the rapidly spreading Coronavirus. In the recent budget of 2021/22 presented by Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel, where Rs.26.75 billion has been allocated for the Covid-19 vaccines and Rs.37.53 billion to control and treatment of Covid-19. It has to be seen how much actual work will be done on the real ground. Because corruption is so rampant in the country that most of the government plans can never see the light of day. They are limited to the papers only. We have already seen the lackluster attitude of the government to tackle the post-earthquake situation. A plethora of earthquake victims has still not gotten any relief from the government. Even after six years, there are several historical monuments, which have not been restored.    

Lockdown may be a viable option for some rich countries, as they can take care of their citizens by providing uninterrupted food and medicine supply for an extended period of time. But this is apparently not possible for many highly populated developing and underdeveloped countries. Their governments are not in a situation to feed their people and provide medicines adequately. Moreover, looking at the characteristics of the virus, it is confirmed that only lockdown cannot be the effective solution to eradicate the pandemic. We have already seen the detrimental effects of lockdown on the economy and the lives of the people as a whole. 

To fight against the pandemic, Nepal shouldn’t follow others’ formulas. What might work for one country is not necessarily work for other countries. Complete lockdown is not in the favor of the well-being of Nepali people. The government must protect the poor and marginalized people of the country. At this juncture, for the better interest of the country and the people, the lawmakers must leave their political differences aside and join hands together to fight against the monster. Protect the people from economical breakdown and secure their future. At the same time, the government must keep a close eye on containing the virus. With the passage of time and owing to the recurring nature of the virus, it has become even more lethal. 

It is therefore some pragmatic steps are necessary to be taken to ensure the lives of the people. Necessary steps should also be taken to lift lockdown gradually. Only curfew type of lockdown is not in the best interest of the people. Moreover, it is experienced that a complete lockdown could only slow down the spreading of the virus for a time being. Once the lockdown is lifted, the situation turns even bad to worse. We have already witnessed how the virus came back with a vengeance after lifting the lockdown in some countries including India and Nepal. 

Not only has the economy of the country but also a large number of poor people, who survive on their daily wage, become the victims of lockdown. Many poor people including children are forced to spend nights without a single meal. It is therefore lockdown cannot be a viable option for a poor country like Nepal. The government must contemplate lifting the lockdown gradually to sustain the economy and saving the people from starvation.  

LB Thapa is a Pokhara-based freelance writer and author.

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